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10 SMT007 MAGAZINE I SEPTEMBER 2022 Feature Interview by Nolan Johnson I-CONNECT007 In this follow-up to his recent interview on the Q4 2022 outlook, Shawn DuBravac, IPC chief economist, provides an update on the incoming supply chain for EMS providers. Naturally, this conversation centers on com- ponent availability, where the supply crunch is easing, and by how much. It doesn't seem we'll be seeing any across-the-board relief for some time to come, but Shawn's higher-altitude per- spective brings insight to your daily planning. Nolan Johnson: Shawn, while things may be easing up in the component supply chain, it's still spotty. Shawn DuBravac: Yes. There are still broad shortages in the market. We aren't seeing a rapid reduction in lead times, but there are variables that point in the direction of health- ier supply chains. For example, we've seen costs come down quite significantly, even fall- ing rapidly, though they also rose rapidly. Ship- ping costs, for example, for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles are off about 32% over the last year. ey shot up signifi- cantly, and now we're seeing them come back down. Johnson: I'm guessing that 32% decrease is not back to what it once was. DuBravac: Correct. We're not back to pre-pan- demic levels yet, but we are getting there and that will continue. We have data through the end of June for motor vehicle assemblies, and this tells us about domestic production in the Finally, Some Good News About Supply Chain