Issue link: https://iconnect007.uberflip.com/i/390433
October 2014 • SMT Magazine 11 ThE wAy i SEE iT Ray Rasmussen is the publisher and chief editor for i-Connect007 publications. he has worked in the industry since 1978 and is the former publisher and chief editor of CircuiTree Magazine. To read past columns, or to contact Rasmussen, click here. Think of the possibilities. When an OEM can fabricate a PCB and assembly as needed, on the fly… Imagine the cost savings! It's an inter- esting scenario. But as these systems get dialed in, how do we stay relevant? inherent Problems Having just published another issue of SMT Magazine dedicated to Tin Whiskers, I, like most of you, am dumbfounded by the amount of en- ergy and resources we invest to breathe addi- tional life into these traditional systems. Lead- free has only magnified many of the problems related to traditional solders. Another welcomed consequence of the ad- dition of thousands of young minds to our in- dustry is that they'll likely provide quick solu- tions to many of the problems plaguing the reli- ability of the systems we're building. These sim- pler (on the surface) systems will require better, lower cost materials. Again, this work is already being done by the globally-interested 3D and PE materials suppliers. Certainly, we can see the day when traditional structures and meth- ods of attaching components will no longer be the norm. There are just too many problems. On the horizon we'll see new schemes to meld functionality into interconnection platforms. Will they be Occam-like or take some other form? Check out what the folks at PARC are doing with embedded components. It's mind blowing: PARC: 3D Printing Electronic Compo- nents Within Objects. Based on what we're seeing, I don't believe the circuits of the future will be more of the same. If you're going to build thousands of PCBs and assemblies using these 3D-PE systems, they'll have to be built on a very reliable platform with the best materials. And with these fresh minds working on the problems, unhindered by 50 years of PCB or assembly experience, I predict they'll come up with some pretty elegant solu- tions. They aren't going to stick with something that's broken. That's what's really exciting. No legacy systems to deal with, just fresh thinking using cutting-edge equipment and materials. the bigger Picture The PCB industry generates $50–$60 billion in revenue today. The PE industry, by some es- timates, could reach $300 billion in a decade or so. IDtechEx predicts a $77 billion PE industry by 2023 with only about 20% of that related to circuits. If that $300 million market size holds true it would mean PE circuits could represent about $60 billion. Now, some of that will be in new PE enabled products, but a portion will come from the PCB segment. And with the new capabilities of 3D combined with PE, along with advances in robotics and the trillion-dollar market forecast for the Internet of Things (IoT), new markets will emerge. Circuits will be every- where and on everything. Many products won't have a PCB in the traditional sense, but circuits will most likely still connect things. Here's a question that we should all ponder, going forward: Are we in the PCB fabrication and PCB assembly business, or are we in the cir- cuit making and circuits' assembly business? is it Our industry? I know some of you might feel like the in- dustry is under attack from PE and now 3D printing, but I see it a bit differently. These tech- nologies are coming whether we like it or not. And the fresh, young minds will invigorate and transform the industry into something new. Now, we can embrace the technologies along with the new entrants or fight them kicking and screaming to the end. I see a ton of opportunity for us all in the former and disaster and demise for us in the latter. I only know of a few PCB and EMS companies that are dabbling in 3D- PE technologies, but I'm sure there are more. I hope my passion for this topic is received as it is intended: to inform our readers as to what I see happening. I certainly welcome your com- ments. They can be published and shared with the rest of the industry or kept private. Just let me know. smt new YOung VOices FinDing the right tune tO sing continues