14 The PCB Magazine • October 2014
TTM and Viasystems (recently acquired by TTM)
have multiple certified facilities, so the total
manufacturing site number is slightly higher.
In the 2005 industry report, Linkages: Man-
ufacturing Trends in Electronics Interconnect
Technology, the National Research Council
(NRC) determined that U.S. production of PCBs
was less than 10% of the world output (whereas
it had been more than 40% in the 1980s). Ad-
ditionally, and for further perspective, accord-
ing to a 2010 National Defense Industrial Asso-
ciation (NDIA) report, Recovering the Domestic
Aerospace and Defense Industrial Base, overall,
the U.S. PCB industry shrunk by an estimated
74% from 2000–2010.
In terms of revenue, that same NDIA report
defines the significant revenue losses in U.S. do-
mestic PCB output as having reduced dramati-
cally from $11 billion in 2000 to less than $4
billion by 2008.
Nietzsche quotes, history and bad news out
of the way, there are some real reasons for op-
timism in the U.S. military and aerospace seg-
ments of the PCB industry.
In an earlier Mil/Aero Markets column, Pen-
tagon Budget Aftershocks (The PCB Magazine,
May 2014) I provided actionable intelligence
for your review as you develop strategies to pur-
sue funded DoD programs and specific oppor-
tunities in the RF/microwave sector related to
electronic warfare initiatives.
There are also significant legacy PCB op-
portunities outlined in a prior column, Foreign
Military Sales: Back to the Future for Sales Op-
portunities (The PCB Magazine, March 2014).
To obtain more current information specific
to the military and aerospace market, I reached
out in mid-September to Sharon Starr, Director
of Market Research at IPC, whom I consider the
foremost industry authority in defining actual
market conditions.
According to Starr:
"IPC estimates that the military and aero-
space market for PCBs accounts for about 28%
of the North American PCB market. This esti-
mate is based on 2013 data collected from the
industry and published in IPC's 2013-2014
Analysis & Forecast for the North American
PCB Industry, which will be published later this
month. This represents at least $965 million.
IPC's bottom-up method of estimating the size
of the market produces a conservative estimate.
Sales growth for rigid PCBs in North Amer-
ica has been basically flat so far this year, with
year-to-date sales to the mil/aero market down
slightly as of July, while rigid PCB sales to other
markets are up compared to the same period
last year. The flexible circuit segment is seeing
modest growth so far this year. As of July, mil/
aero flex sales are outperforming sales to other
markets. This information is from the Septem-
ber edition of IPC's North American PCB Mar-
ket Report, which is published monthly."
(For a deeper dive into the growth poten-
tial for flexible circuits, please see the November
2013 column, The Intersection of Unmanned
Vehicle Systems and Electronics Technology.)
Therefore, through my interpretation of the
data, a minimum of nearly $1 billion of U.S mil-
itary and aerospace printed circuit manufactur-
ing business will be available in 2015. For clari-
fication, all of these opportunities would not be
purely Mil-31032 requirements and would also
be comprised of IPC Class 2 and Class 3 builds,
effectively opening up the market for all U.S.
based facilities that are ITAR registered and are
certified to manufacture to IPC requirements.
More importantly, and to provide an oppor-
tunity for military and aerospace PCB growth
sustainment and future growth, as we near
the close of 2014 there have recently been two
dramatic and long overdue legislative develop-
ments driven by the IPC that will positively
impact the U.S. domestic PCB industry, particu-
larly the military/aerospace sector:
• On July 1, 2014 the U.S. Department of
State published a final rule for Category XI for
Military Electronics of the United States Muni-
tions List (USML). This clarifies the treatment of
PCBs under International Traffic in Arms Reg-
ulations (ITAR). The new rule states that PCBs
"specially designed" for defense-related pur-
poses will be controlled under USML Category
XI. Additionally, any designs or digital data re-
lated to the "specially designed" PCBs will be
controlled as technical data. This is a significant
victory for the IPC and its members, who have
long advocated that PCB designs should remain
under the jurisdiction of ITAR when the end
UP, UP AND AWAY continues
