Issue link: https://iconnect007.uberflip.com/i/1172746
OCTOBER 2019 I SMT007 MAGAZINE 55 ment of Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying to exit the European Union on October 31. If that occurs, World Trade Organization (WTO) tariffs between the U.K. and EU could snap back into effect, requiring goods to be repriced accordingly. Customs officials would need to re-establish rules and procedures at the vari- ous borders. Companies with operations in the U.K. and EU would need to comply with two sets of regulations instead of one. The electronics industry could be dispropor- tionately impacted. Without an orderly Brexit, the U.K.'s share of the EU's electronics market could drop as British companies find it harder to access European electronics workers and customers. Compounding the uncertainty, the British Parliament and Prime Minister Boris Johnson are locked in a prolonged political standoff, and another leadership change or snap election cannot be ruled out. Moving eastward into Europe, in a bright spot for trade policy. The European Union and the four founding members of Mercosur— Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay— reached an agreement in June on a new trade pact. If approved, it would cover a population of 780 million. The EU and Mercosur agreed on substantial market openings for industrial goods, government procurement, IT services, and agriculture. However, spurred by the wildfires in the Amazon this summer, some EU policymakers and activist groups are raising concerns about the deal's environmental impacts. Simultane- ously, a new EU President and slate of Euro- pean Commissioners are just coming into office, and they have emphasized an agenda of environmental protection and trade policy enforcement. The ratification process for EU- Mercosur is beginning to look like a more com- plicated affair. And remember the WTO? In theory, it is still the world's largest and most influential forum for trade policy and enforcement. However, the U.S. government—which has threatened to leave the WTO over national sovereignty con- cerns—has refused to consider nominees to fill four vacancies on the organization's appel- late panel, which rules on disputes over WTO rules. A U.S. lawyer who still serves on that panel has said he may resign by December, leaving it without a quorum to conduct busi- ness and throwing a dozen long-running cases into disarray. Recession Fears and Technology Disruptions So far, I've spilled more than 1,000 words on uncertainties created by international trade dis- putes and government leadership changes, but even higher-level uncertainties loom. There's no doubt that in recent weeks, you have seen the sudden wave of news and commentary about the possible risk of a recession in the next 12–24 months. Amid the various trade skirmishes and a batch of worrisome economic indicators, a survey released in August found that 74% of economists predict the next reces- sion will hit by the end of 2021 [2] . Take the elevator up another level, and the world faces a confluence of megatrends that are already disrupting business and the econ- omy, from the cloud and "big data" to the inter- net of things, wireless everything, automa- tion, artificial intelligence (AI), cyber threats, 3D printing, and the shortage of technically skilled workers, just to name a few. Be on the