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12 SMT007 MAGAZINE I NOVEMBER 2019 However, some spotty problems can still hap- pen. We're still struggling with MOSFETs, which are still in the 30+ week range. I don't see any real change in that happening yet, but most of the other components—particularly the MLCCs and smaller sizes, such as 0201s and some 0402s—are down to reasonable lead times. The larger case sizes for the MLCCs are still con- strained, of which the sizes 0603, 0805, and 1206 are the most common; those still have longer lead times with 25 weeks or more, and we do not expect to see them improve at all. The other thing that is holding up the market is the launch of 5G technology. Huawei was leading the pack in that and was expected to release 5G technology toward the end of Q2, but that has not happened. It's not the cellphones themselves but the infrastructure, including repeaters, power stations, and devices. The big concern is those infrastructure devices use the same larger case sizes that are still somewhat constrained—0603s, 0805s, etc. When 5G technology hits, we expect to see another wave of constraints. Right now, it's looking like it will be at the end of this year or the beginning of next year, but at this point, on the larger sizes, Murata has pulled out on MLCCs in most of those areas. They still have some, but no manufacturer is add- ing capacity in the larger case sizes. The capacity we have is all there is, and when 5G technology kicks in, it will put a strain on the market on those parts. There's a major technology shift happening to smaller parts, which is very similar to what we saw in the early 2000s with the change from leaded to RoHS, which constrained the market. This is a technology shift, so the parts are not going to get bigger. They're going to con- tinue to get smaller, and most cus- tomers have a very short period of time—maybe two to three years— before the availability is gone on those; then, they're into the gray market or constrained parts. Cus- tomers are going to have to redesign those parts, or they're going to experience extreme lead times and high prices, which is going to be pushed by 5G infrastructure. Johnson: We seem to be on the same trajectory as at the start of 2019 except that the availabil- ity has adjusted, not so much by manufactur- ing capacity, but by changes in the demand. Martin: Well, the manufacturers have brought on capacity in the smaller case size parts, like the MLCCs, which were fully constrained because the automotive industry, in general, is using more and more of those parts; between the handset and the automotive industry, they drive the demand for those parts. For exam- ple, a typical electric car may have as many as 30,000 MLCCs. The iPhone 10 has over 1,000 MLCCs. If demand and production drop in automotive—and China's a strong user of the electric car, to put it in perspective—the avail- ability comes up. At the same time, manufac- turers have been adding 10–15% capacity in the smaller parts—the 0201s and smaller. They

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