Issue link: https://iconnect007.uberflip.com/i/1181966
14 SMT007 MAGAZINE I NOVEMBER 2019 so that we can get this new, whizzy technol- ogy. That's going to cause us another spike in the market when that happens. Johnson: You touched on something that runs counter to history, as I recall, in the form of a 5G rollout in China first. Usually, that sort of stuff rolls out in Europe first. Martin: Huawei was the Chinese company leading the pack and was almost ready to roll out, but I think the U.S. restrictions delayed that. The constraints the U.S. put in in terms of restrictions on data going to companies and individuals have limited the number of Amer- ican companies that can work with Huawei, which is a concern. For instance, Qualcomm is a big component of Huawei. It has thrown a bit of a delay in Huawei, and I believe that's part of the reason it hasn't rolled out. The same is true with the Android system; they're having to look at developing their own system. Right now, the game plan from everything we hear from the suppliers is it rolls out in China first, and then Europe. The U.S. is hesitant as to which companies they're going to work with. I don't think they decided, but I believe the U.S. has restricted using any Huawei products, so even if they rolled out, we wouldn't get them here. Johnson: That's great information. What do you expect to change over the next five years? Martin: I expect us to see more parts go to the end of life at a faster pace. We're at the begin- ning of this rollout of moving to smaller case sizes, so I see a lot of sourcing issues going on with customers that are hesitant to redo their design. We're going to have some stum- bling blocks and delays with those customers, particularly in medical where it takes almost 18 months to requalify. We'll also have some issues with customers not redesigning their product in a timely manner, which is going to create a gray market that may increase the like- lihood of counterfeits. When there's a supply shortage, you see more counterfeit opportuni- ties. Overall, this technology shift is going to continue to happen; it has already started, and it will ripple through all of the other commod- ities. Right now, you see it in the MLCCs and the resistors, in particular, but it will ultimately ripple through the entire technology base.