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36 DESIGN007 MAGAZINE I DECEMBER 2024 The Gartner Hype Cycle: Breaking Down the Phases Let's examine the chart and see if we can relate to some of the common ups and downs many engineering groups experience when develop- ing their own advanced solutions or trying to implement others from outside. 1. Innovation (Technology) Trigger "A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Oen no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven." 1 is initial phase could come about as a noble challenge, like the day that JFK announced America would land a man on the moon. Innova- tion can be triggered by a change in technology, like a new chipset, or more capability packed into a less expensive part. Sometimes, a project launches to solve an immediate need during a world crisis, like when the Open Source Venti- lator project was formed to quickly address the need for ventilators during the pandemic. 2 Building a team to respond to an innovation trigger and then engage in a full-blown project is not for the faint of heart. At this stage, infor- mation and decision-making move fast. e concept involves unknown risks and no guar- antee of success or reward. 2. Peak of Inflated Expectations "Early publicity produces a number of success stories—oen accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most do not." 1 Once news breaks of a new advanced prod- uct or service, a sales and marketing team will most certainly become involved. Oen before the idea is developed and proven, publicity has been generated and investors are being solic- ited. is is the high point in a project in which hyped expectations have not been vetted against solid application, and a PCB designer obtains that new limited capability demo soware to try out. It's also when product or service develop- ment begins shaking hands with real users. 3. Trough of Disillusionment "Interest wanes as experiments and implemen- tations fail to deliver. Producers of the tech- nology shake out or fail. Investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters." 1 Both innovators and customers find them- selves crashing and burning into the trough of disillusionment from time to time. At the bot- tom of the trough there is a bright adage attrib- uted to author John C. Maxwell: "Fail early, fail oen, but always fail forward." is quote appears to have been adopted by some Sili- con Valley startups, morphing into the more familiar "fail fast, fail oen" meme most PCB industry development folks are familiar with. Continuing from here will require more invest- ment and more time. Will it be worth it? 4. Slope of Enlightenment "More instances of the technology's benefits start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious." 1 If it is determined that the rewards can still exceed the risks, much can be gained from leveraging experience and feedback data col- lected from all the failures experienced during previous phases. ink of how many rockets exploded or crashed before SpaceX was suc- cessful in landing a reusable booster stage. New technology and ideas—successes and failures—make valuable reference points to gauge applicability over time. It may be dur- ing this advanced phase of a product or ser- vice timeline that an engineer with only a sub- stratosphere limited budget begins adopting a technology, as it appears to be the best place to jump in before the competition does. 5. Plateau of Productivity "Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Cri- teria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. e technology's broad mar-