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DECEMBER 2024 I PCB007 MAGAZINE 43 as the current global PCB market situa- tion, are cited for the postponements. • ailand will undoubtedly become the number one PCB country in ASEAN. All those newly established capacities, how- ever, will only take a small piece of China's forecasted 51+% global PCB share by 2028 (according to Prismark). Note: e total share will still be 65% when adding Taiwan's companies. In summary, while growth outside China may be aggressive, China will still remain the world's leading PCB manufacturing country by far. Expect China to emphasize value-added products. Recommendations For Chinese PCB shops, re-evaluate your company's business model: Are your custom- ers exclusively domestic Chinese customers? en there is no need to go overseas. If your company exports business: • What is the projected share now, and in five or 10 years? • What is the projected technology five and 10 years in the future, both for domestic and export business? • Are your existing export customers willing to participate in the costs of setting up an overseas subsidiary? • Would you have to acquire different customers to fill your overseas factory? For end users (OEMs, EMS, etc), re-evaluate your company's sourcing model: • How many of your suppliers are in China? • Run a risk analysis for today's business and for five years down the road • Are you willing to pay for the qualification costs associated with a brand-new factory? • Do you have customers who require re- qualification if you change one of your sup- plier's factories? How would that impact your push for a China+1 solution? • Be aware that the total cost of PCBs from Southeast Asia (price, lead time, and therefore inventory, etc.) will not be cheaper than that currently from China. Summary ere is no general solution for China Plus One, because the complexity includes so many aspects of a company's business model, be it for sourcing or manufacturing. Before a com- pany makes such a giant step, all eventualities should be evaluated. Implementing China Plus One is a high-level strategic move, not a tacti- cal one. As the saying goes in China: Don't act before you've thought it through carefully. Most importantly, continue to work closely with your current suppliers and customers. PCB007 References 1. "65% of all imported PCBs in Europe come from China," by Dennis Dahlgren, Evertiq, May 28, 2024. 2. "First phase RM8.5 billion AT7S Kulim plant opens for operation," by Adie Zulkifli, New Straits Times, Jan. 23, 2024. 3. "TTM Technologies to Accelerate Phase 2 Investment in Penang Plant," Bernama, April 25, 2024. 4. "Sunshine PCB Acquires Vision Industries Malaysia," Microwave Journal, April 21, 2023. 5. "Thailand Aims for PCB Market Leadership With Foreign Investment," Khaosod, Sept. 14, 2024. 6. "New investment promotion for the Printed Circuit Board (PCB) industry," KPMG. 7. "Thailand announces tax and other incentives for PCB manufacturers," RegFollower, May 17, 2024. 8. "Thailand PCB map is newly released to help you explore unlimited business opportunities," EE Times China, Nov. 26, 2023. Manfred Huschka is CEO and senior consultant for Manfred Huschka Manage- ment Consulting (Shenzen) Ltd.