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December 2014 • The PCB Magazine 21 2015 OUTLOOk FOR THE PCB INDUSTRy: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIvE continues The resulting 6/12 growth curve for China is therefore somewhat flat (as shown in Figure 13) without the extraordinary bursts of growth seen in previous boom times. Nevertheless it re- mains at positive growth levels. Using the forecasting methodology to ex- trapolate the curve forward (Figure 14) results in forecast growth rates of a modest 3–5% in 2014 followed by an upswing in 2015 of up to 12% and softening again to single digit growth, 7% in 2016 and <5% in 2017. In 2013, China produced 44% of the total PCBs made worldwide in addition to importing high-performance boards from Japan and Tai- wan. However, dependence on imports is reduc- ing as capacity expansion continues. The balance of this capacity expansion is changing as Japa- nese, Taiwanese and Korean fabricators are shift- ing away from building additional capacity for production of high performance boards in China where wages and overheads are rising, and set- ting up in lower cost countries such as Vietnam. Figure 12: Pcb production in Japan, 12/12 growth, historic and forecast 2014–2017. Figure 13: indices of electronics production in china (100 = average value in 2010).