64 PCB007 MAGAZINE I FEBRUARY 2019
the latest is Germany with 2050. The median is
around 2030, so this will not occur overnight.
However, it leads us to estimate that the sale of
electric cars will increase substantially within
only a couple of years.
The increase in the sale of electric vehicles
will depend on the battery package, increase
the demand for copper per car from typically
nine to 25 and even 90 Kg
[2]
. One can assume
that the quality, efficiency, and amount of bat-
teries will continue to increase, which will lead
to a further demand for copper per car. As an
example, a luxury car has an average of two to
three square meters of PCBs, and an electric
vehicle has five to eight square meters of PCBs
[3]
. The PCBs for electric cars are also more
advanced and costly because the car is practi-
cally a computer on wheels.
Batteries vs. PCBs:
Competing Copper Resources
The copper foil used in batteries is more or
less a direct competitor to the copper foil used
for PCBs. An increase in the demand for elec-
tric vehicles will therefore directly affect the
copper foil price for PCBs. Rather, the ques-
tion is, "How much and how fast will the de-
mand for electric vehicles increase, and what
is the consequence for the battery supply?" In
relation to BMW, one article states, "They are
especially worried about the battery pack"
[4]
.
Volkswagen alone has a battery contract for
over $48 billion USD
[5]
. Over 30 different types
of electric cars with different battery packages
are planned to be on the road by 2025, which
is likely to be an understatement
[6]
.
The international energy agency estimates
a growth from a total current sale of electric
cars of three million from 1900 to 2018 to a
total sale of over 125 million by 2025
[7]
. The
total number of cars sold in 2018 was approxi-
mately 80 million
[8]
. Bloomberg estimates a
yearly sale of 11 million electric vehicles by
2025
[9]
. If these presumptions are correct,
then the effect on copper foil demand (not
including upgrading PDNs, charging stations,
critical infrastructure for electric vehicles,
etc.) can be estimated to be 803,000 tons of
copper per year
[10]
. This constitutes growth in
the demand for copper per year from 2025 by
approximately 2.7%
[11]
.
Start Planning
Now is the time to start planning. The auto-
motive industry will not shift overnight. The
production line takes time to adjust, and new
copper mines, technologies, and projects will
improve the supply of copper. The question is
perhaps, "How should you prepare if the adop-
tion of electric cars is faster than anticipated,
let alone considering tax cuts, environmental
considerations, and customer demands?"
PCB007
References
1. Schipper, B. W., Lin, H.C., Meloni, M.A., Wansleeben, K.,
Heijungs, R., & van der Voet, E. "Estimating global copper
demand until 2100 with regression and stock dynamics,"
Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Volume 132, May
2018, pp. 28–36.
2. Copper Development Association (CDA) Inc. "Copper
Drives Electric Vehicles."
3. Eikei Group. "PCB Market Increment Driven by New-
energy Vehicles in Vogue," March 30, 2018.
4. Lambert, F. "BMW invests over $225 million to bring
new i4 electric car to production," Electrek, December 12,
2018.
5. Lambert, F. "VW doubles its electric vehicle battery
contracts to $48 billion," Electrek, May 4, 2018.
6. Matousek, M. "30 electric cars you'll see on the road
by 2025," Business Insider Nordic, August 23, 2018.
7. DiChristopher, T. "Electric vehicles will grow from 3
million to 125 million by 2030, International Energy Agency
forecasts," CNBC, May 30, 2018.
8. Statista. "Number of cars sold worldwide from 1990
to 2018 (in million units)," October, 2018.
9. Bloomberg. "Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018."
10. Calculation: 90-kg copper electric car – 17-kg com-
bustion car ((9 + 25) / 2) * 11 million cars)
11. Calculation: 2.7% (803,000/30,000,000 (30 million
(35 million + 25 million) / 2))
Didrik Bech is the CEO of Elmatica.
To read past columns or contact
Bech, click here.
