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18 SMT007 MAGAZINE I MAY 2026 Based on survey data, U.S. EMS providers are reporting a noticeable uptick in orders, and the narrative forming around what's driving that growth is familiar: tariffs, reshoring, and a long-awaited revival of domestic manufacturing. Some analysts even claim we've entered a super-cycle, a pro- longed period of demand-driven economic growth that can last years to decades. But as is often the case in this industry, the reality is more nuanced. A closer look at the data suggests two com- peting truths. First, there is real growth, but that growth seems concentrated, uneven, and, in some cases, distorted by policy-driven timing effects. Next, what kind of growth are we actually seeing, and how durable is it? In this article, we present both bullish and bearish perspectives, then reconcile them into an analysis as holistically as possible. Is U.S. EMS Growth Real or Just Repositioning? BY N O L A N J O H N S O N , I - C O N N ECT 0 07 F E AT U R E A RT I C L E