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PCB007-Jan2021

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52 PCB007 MAGAZINE I JANUARY 2021 policy statements and green agendas of most governments for the coming 5–10 years. The lithium battery forecasts for China alone give a strong indication of the impact on supply and demand, and price pressure for copper foils in the coming 10 years (Table 2). Similar conclusions were made in a recent report by Goldman Sachs, which predict a sus- tained bull market for copper: "[A] bull mar- ket for copper is now fully underway with pric- es up 50% from the 2020 lows, reaching their highest level since 2017. This current price strength is not an irrational aberration, rath- er we view it as the first leg of a structural bull market in copper." [1] Goldman Sachs analysts raised their 12-month forecast for copper to US$9,500 per metric ton, up from a previous estimate of $7,500. The Wall Street bank said it now ex- pects a sustained, higher average price for 2021 and 2022. It has estimated copper prices will average around $8,625 next year, before climb- ing to an average of $9,175 in 2022. By the first half of 2022, Goldman Sachs analysts noted, it is "highly probable" copper would test the ex- isting record highs of $10,170 set in 2011. Aluminum Demand for aluminium in insulated met- al substrates (IMS) and metal-backed print- ed circuit boards (MPCB) continues be driven by the demand for thermal management solu- tions for high-powered LED general and auto- motive lighting applications, as well as power conversion applications associated with e-mo- bility charging infrastructure and green energy generation, as well as the competing industrial and consumer applications. As demand from these sectors starts to pick up pace, post-pandemic lock- down prices are starting to rise above their pre-pandemic levels, introducing price pres- sures to the supply chain. See Figure 2 for a graphic repre- sentation of these levels. Epoxy Resins High demand for epoxy res- ins for green energy applica- tions (wind turbine blades) in China, coupled with recent industrial accidents at volume resin manufacturing facili- ties in China and Korea has led to shortages and signifi- Table 2: Every Gwh will consume 900 tons of copper foil. (Source Ventec International Group. Data sources include Co-tech Development Corp. and Taiwan Copper Foil Manufacturing Association)The trends are already evident in the pricing data for raw copper (Figure 1). Since March 2020, prices have continued to rise rapidly and have now even significantly exceeded pre-pandemic lockdown highs. Figure 1: This chart details the historical price of LME copper. (Source: London Metal Exchange.)

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