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JANUARY 2021 I PCB007 MAGAZINE 53 cant (60%) price hikes for CCL manufacturers in the last two months. The impact is mostly felt in standard (130-135 o C Tg) FR-4 laminates and PP production costs and has already fed through to December 2020 price increases of 15–20% at the factory gate. These increases will be felt in Europe and the U.S. from early Q1 2021 as inventories in these markets are replenished with higher cost stock. Upward price pressure has also been building for mid- and high-Tg phenolic cured FR-4 since the end of August 2020. The cumu- lative effect to date is around 15–20%, which will equate to 5–10% increases for CCL and PP in early Q1 2021. Glass High growth in consumer and green ener- gy applications is also pushing up glass yarn and glass fabric prices and limiting availabil- ity, particularly for heavyweight fabrics such as 7628 and 2116. Glass fabric manufactur- ers tend to follow the demand for those ma- terials which have lower quality demands and command higher market prices than those de- manded by the PCB industry. The CCL manu- facturers expect that this trend will cause lami- nate shortages, particularly for rigid materials. High year-end enquiries and order levels in Asia are always a solid precursor of both avail- ability limitations, and signif- icant price increases in early 2021. This has already been confirmed by market price in- crease warnings issued by the global market leaders in rigid CCL production. Supply Chain Logistics Supply chain logistics are another cause of concern as demand picks up post-pan- demic lockdown. There are significant capacity con- straints affecting the availabil- ity of both sea and air freight. Market data shows that air freight demand is close to re- turning to 2019 levels, but the available capacity is down by 24% due to the lack of passenger flights. Price levels are down from the early pandemic highs of 4–5X pre- pandemic rates. However, the price trend is upward from summer 2020 levels of 1.5X pre- pandemic rates and currently sitting at 2–2.5X pre-pandemic rates due to very high season- al demand. They are expected to remain high in 2021 and until a significant increase in pas- senger air traffic increases available cargo ca- pacity. For sea freight, demand is high due to a post- pandemic lockdown rebound in demand, lead- ing to two major issues: a shortage of both dry and refrigerated containers, and a high dif- ferential in pricing on Asia-to-Europe/UK and Asia-to-U.S. shipping routes. This differential toward more profitable U.S. routes is driving up prices for container traffic between Asia and Europe/UK, and freight rates to the U.S. are already very high. Any comments on logistic pressures would, of course, not be complete without some men- tion of Brexit. Congestion at UK ports was al- ready building prior to the UK's departure from the EU at the end of December 2020. This is leading to non-negotiable congestion surcharg- es, which for now can be absorbed to some de- gree, but with other price pressures building, if they continue for the long term, they will need Figure 2: The price fluctuations of aluminum over time. (Source: London Metal Exchange)