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10 PCB007 MAGAZINE I JULY 2022 Feature Interview by Nolan Johnson I-CONNECT007 IPC Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac has plenty to share about the state of the U.S. economy and how the electronics manufactur- ing industry might weather the storms of high inflation, rising interest rates, and low unem- ployment. It's an interesting situation to find ourselves in as the flurry of opinion on a 2023 recession starts to take shape. Does it make sense to invest in PCB fab now? And how does the rest of the world feel about it? Shawn gets to the bottom line. Nolan Johnson: Shawn, the economic outlook hasn't been too rosy. I'm hoping our discus- sion today will provide some perspective for what to expect, especially for manufacturers in Q4. Shawn DuBravac: I would characterize it as the playing out of dueling narratives. For con- text, in March 2020, we went into a very steep, quick, deep recession. is was a pronounced, unprecedented recession. Had it continued, it would have been by far the worst economic environment we have ever seen. Companies— and the federal government—responded to that abruptness very quickly. In the auto sec- tor, you saw them cut production significantly, driving it essentially to zero in anticipation of a very deep recession. e government, through both fiscal and monetary policy, brought in unprecedented amounts of support for the economy. With no confirmation about how long it would last, we had several stimulus measures. Q4 Concerns: Hold On to Your Hats