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IPC COMMUNITY 16 FALL 2023 INDUSTRY INTELLIGENCE Forecasting the Wind Must-read content from IPC's expert economist By Shawn DuBravac, IPC Chief Economist "We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies." —Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve In the enchant- ing world of Shake- s p e a r e ' s p l a y s , prophecies often set the stage for unforeseen twists and turns. Just as Macbeth could not have anticipated the tumultuous journey that lay ahead after e n c o u n t e r i n g t h e three witches, the finan- cial markets and policy- makers find themselves in a similarly uncertain terrain. Take prices, which rose sharply in 2022. The Fed- eral Reserve was slow to respond. Although the rate of inflation has declined since reaching its zenith last year, it contin- ues to exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal. "Higher for longer" i s l i k e l y t h e mantra for interest r a t e s . T h i s p r o - l o n ge d p e r i o d o f higher interest rates w i l l h a v e a r i p p l e e f f e c t o n v a r i o u s sectors of the economy.

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