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80 SMT007 MAGAZINE I FEBRUARY 2026 India and South Asia: Tariffs as Industrial Policy, Predictability as the Constraint In India and South Asia, tariffs at the end of 2025 are best understood as deliberate instruments of indus- trial strategy, rather than reactive trade measures. Electronics-relevant tariffs remained in force along- side a broader policy framework designed to boost the domestic value chain, expand assembly capacity, and gradually build mid-stream and upstream manu- facturing capabilities. For the electronics industry, the challenge is not tariff levels alone, but policy sequencing and predict- ability. Firms continue to navigate phased adjust- ments, localization thresholds, and customs prac- tices while managing deep dependence on imported components and materials. This dependence ampli- fies the cost sensitivity of tariffs on inputs, even as incentives aim to offset those pressures. Momentum toward expanded trade networks offers a potential counterbalance by improving market access and investment certainty. Enter- ing 2026, India remains a strategically important growth node for electronics, but one where clarity and execution will matter more than tariff changes. China and East Asia: Planning for Tariffs That Are Likely to Stay For China and much of East Asia, tariffs affecting electronics trade are no longer viewed as tempo- rary measures waiting to be reversed. By the end of 2025, China-specific tariffs, changes to de minimis treatment, and logistics-related fees had become part of the baseline cost structure for doing business. Most electronics firms have adjusted accordingly. Rather than planning around the possibility of tariff removal, companies have redesigned supply chains, shifted portions of assembly elsewhere, reclassified products where possible, or absorbed higher costs when alternatives are limited. At the same time, China remains central to global electronics manu- facturing—particularly for components, materials, and intermediate goods—making complete disen- gagement unrealistic for most firms. As the industry looks to 2026, the key challenge is not a sudden new tariff wave, but the likelihood that existing measures remain in place and gradually expand at the margins. Incremental changes, such as higher logistics costs, tighter rules on low-value shipments, or narrower exemptions, can materially affect electronics trade even without headline-grab- bing tariffs announcements. For companies operat- ing in East Asia, resilience now means planning for a resilient-yet-higher-cost environment. SMT007 Thiago Guimaraes is direc- tor of industry intelligence for the Global Electronics Association.