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56 The PCB Magazine • December 2017 Now is the time to plan. The automotive in- dustry will not shift overnight; the production line takes time to adjust. But the PCB industry needs to start communicating about this chal- lenge and open dialogue is critical, since we all are facing the same issues. An additional concern is the continued shortage of glass yarn which also reduces the output of glass cloth used in laminates and pre- preg. One of the world's largest CCL manufac- turers has recently issued a notice to its custom- ers, informing them of a reduced output until the end of 2017 due to insufficient glass cloth. Feeling Stable The current apparent stability of the CCL supply is most likely due to a decrease in or- ders placed and/or postponement of delivery of printed circuits in recent months. This is due to a lack of components and hence, a short-term decrease for PCB. This stable situation is not due to an increased supply of CCL. The ques- tion is, what will happen over the next months with Chinese New Year coming, copper scarce, and if the supply of components stabilizes? If everyone starts placing orders for printed circuits at the same time, then a temporary short- age of CCL can result. We have for a long time ad- vised our customers to prepare an accurate fore- cast, place orders in advance, and plan for longer lead-times. Another strategy is to approve more than one type of laminate for a product and con- sequently increase the flexibility of supply. The whole supply chain needs to work togeth- er now. This is not a challenge that will suddenly disappear. It has built up over the last years, and I am certain that it will stay for quite some time. PCB References 1.Global and China Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) Industry Report, 2016-2020, Researchan- dMarkets. Didrik Bech is CEO of Elmatica. China already has a quite aggressive zero- emission mandate, resulting in automakers sig- nificantly increasing their investments in elec- tric vehicle production in that country. As the biggest car market in the world, it's not hard to understand that a massive increase in produc- tion of electric cars for China will affect the cop- per shortage, and the amount of copper foil re- served to produce printed circuits. It is estimat- ed that there will be a 10 million ton copper foil deficit by 2028; that is around 40% of the cop- per demand in 2017. Adding further tension to the copper short- age is China's plan to ban waste imports, which is a significant source of recycled copper. Oth- er actors will continue this work; however, it will only create a temporary decrease in supply. These aspects and other elements such as mines located in unstable countries, few new copper mines and a number of closed mines will affect the supply chain of copper and in turn the cop- per-clad foil situation for the PCB industry. No Time to Lose In May, Mark Goodwin, Ventec COO for the USA and Europe, said, "Our market assess- ment is that the copper foil shortage has result- ed in approximately 2.8M sheets per month CCL global material shortage. This is approxi- mately 2x the total rigid demand of USA and Europe combined. We expect the situation to last at least until the middle/end of 2018. Now is the time to work closely with your material supplier to secure your supply, and to pass on the inevitable increases in cost in your finished board prices." THE COPPER FOIL SHORTAGE: WHY, HOW AND WHAT TO EXPECT " Adding further tension to the copper shortage is China's plan to ban waste imports, which is a significant source of recycled copper. "